Patrick Mahomes has already carved out a Hall-of-Fame-caliber career. He’s dazzled with no-look passes, carried Kansas City to multiple Super Bowl appearances, and made magic on the move. But beyond the MVPs and highlight reels, there’s one metric that tells us how well a quarterback truly holds up under pressure: their record against winning teams.
In this article, we break down every regular season game Patrick Mahomes has started against teams that finished that same year with a record over .500. The result is a detailed, honest look at how he performs against the league’s best.
Patrick Mahomes Record vs Winning Teams
Through the end of the 2024 NFL season, Mahomes holds a record of 41–20 (.672) against teams that finished with a winning record.
This includes only regular-season games where:
- Mahomes was the starting quarterback
- The opponent finished the season above .500
Here’s the year-by-year breakdown:
| Season | Record | Notable Wins | Notable Losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 6–4 | Chargers, Ravens, Steelers, Seahawks | Patriots, Rams, Seahawks, Chargers |
| 2019 | 5–3 | Ravens, Patriots, Vikings, Texans, Bears | Packers, Colts, Titans |
| 2020 | 6–1 | Saints, Buccaneers, Bills, Dolphins, Browns | Raiders |
| 2021 | 4–4 | Packers, Cowboys, Raiders, Chargers | Ravens, Titans, Bengals (2x) |
| 2022 | 6–1 | Chargers (2x), 49ers, Bengals, Jaguars | Bengals |
| 2023 | 5–4 | Dolphins, Jaguars, Vikings, Chargers, Bills | Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Bengals |
| 2024 | 5–3 | Ravens, Bengals, Chargers, Texans, Eagles | Bills, 49ers, Lions |
Total: 41 Wins – 20 Losses (.672)
Visual Summary: Season-by-Season Record
A Closer Look at the Numbers
Few quarterbacks have come out of the gate with the same consistency and dominance as Mahomes. Since taking over the Chiefs in 2018, he’s never had a losing record against winning teams in any season.
2020 stands out with a nearly flawless record. He beat playoff-caliber teams weekly and showed he could handle both elite defenses and high-stakes shootouts. Meanwhile, even in his “worst” year (2021), he still managed a .500 split in a season where Kansas City’s defense ranked bottom-third for much of the campaign.
What’s more impressive is how well he’s done on the road. Many of these wins came in hostile environments, including Baltimore, New England, Buffalo, and Los Angeles.
Why This Metric Matters
Some quarterbacks get inflated numbers by padding stats against weak teams. Mahomes doesn’t have that luxury. Kansas City is a constant Super Bowl contender, which means their schedule is always among the league’s hardest. Strength of schedule, primetime matchups, and playoff implications come with the territory.
Looking at how a QB does against winning teams gives us a better sense of their reliability when the pressure’s highest. Mahomes has passed that test over and over again.
How He Compares to the Rest
With a win percentage of .672 against winning teams, Mahomes is near the top among active quarterbacks. Compared to peers:
- Dak Prescott: .456
- Josh Allen: .550 (estimate)
- Joe Burrow: .600+ (estimate)
- Aaron Rodgers: just under .500 in recent seasons
You can view the full comparison here: Master QB Record Chart
External References
- Patrick Mahomes full career stats – Pro Football Reference
- QB advanced efficiency metrics – RBSDM.com
- Patrick Mahomes contract details – Spotrac
Not Just Wins—Impact
You can’t talk about Mahomes without mentioning his impact. In big moments, he extends plays, throws darts on the run, and rarely makes critical mistakes. That shows up on film, but also in this record.
His ability to elevate teammates, adapt to injuries (like in 2022 and 2023), and compete with anyone, anywhere, is why he’s in the MVP conversation every season.
Critics used to point to turnovers and late-game heroics masking shaky stretches. But the numbers say otherwise. Mahomes is delivering wins when it matters most.
A Bigger Picture: Mahomes’ Legacy in Progress
There’s a reason Mahomes is already in the GOAT conversation this early into his career. It’s not just what he’s accomplished. It’s how rapidly he reached those milestones. Think about it: from MVP awards to Super Bowl rings, all while consistently performing against teams that are playoff-bound.
This win-loss record isn’t just a stat. It’s a reflection of how Mahomes responds to the best. When he sees a top-tier defense across the line of scrimmage, he usually finds a way to adapt. When he’s in a shootout with another elite QB, he rarely flinches.
It’s also worth remembering that Mahomes has accomplished all of this in an AFC that has been stacked. He’s gone toe-to-toe with Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and a revolving door of tough AFC playoff teams. And more often than not, he’s the one advancing.
Just as importantly, he’s managed to do this with evolving offensive lines, rotating wide receivers, and changes in defensive scheme. His leadership, awareness, and ability to make game-breaking plays out of nothing separate him from almost everyone else in the league.
Even as defenses adjust to slow him down, he keeps adjusting right back. That kind of adaptability, paired with elite talent, explains why he continues to win these matchups.
Final Thoughts
Patrick Mahomes isn’t just flashy. He’s efficient, resilient, and built for big games. With a 41–20 record against teams that finished with a .500 or better record, there’s not much room to doubt him.
The road ahead will only get tougher, but history says he’ll be ready. And if history is our guide, betting against him is usually a bad idea.
