Since entering the NFL in 2020, Justin Herbert has emerged as one of the league’s most talked-about quarterbacks. With his cannon arm, calm under pressure, and ability to make highlight-worthy throws, Herbert has been viewed as a future MVP contender. But a recurring question persists: how often does he actually beat the league’s best?

At SportsAndFitnessDigest.com, we define “winning teams” as those that finish the season with a .500 record or better. It’s a standard that removes guesswork about when a team was “good” and provides an accurate picture of how quarterbacks perform against proven competition.

Justin Herbert’s Record vs Winning Teams

As of the end of the 2024 NFL regular season, Justin Herbert holds a career record of 10–26 (.278) against teams that finished the season .500 or better.

This includes only:

• Regular-season games where Herbert was the starting quarterback
• Opponents that finished the year at .500 or above, based on final standings

Year-by-Year Breakdown

Career Total: 10 Wins – 26 Losses (.278)

Visual Breakdown

Why This Metric Matters

There’s never been any doubt about Herbert’s physical gifts. Since his impromptu debut in Week 2 of 2020, when he nearly upset the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, he’s shown the kind of traits scouts dream about. But football is measured in wins, and his record against quality opponents shows there’s work to do.

Many of Herbert’s losses to winning teams have been heartbreakers—one-score games that fell apart late. Missed field goals, busted coverages, or late-game turnovers have all contributed. The consistency just hasn’t been there.

Still, Herbert has proved he can beat playoff-bound opponents. He’s notched signature wins over teams like the Bengals, Dolphins, and Ravens. But for a quarterback regularly placed in the top tier by analysts, the expectation is a winning record—or at least a near-even split—in these matchups.

How Herbert Stacks Up

Here’s how his current .278 win percentage compares to other big-name quarterbacks:

• Patrick Mahomes: 41–20 (.672)
• Josh Allen: 21–23 (.477)
• Kirk Cousins: 23–38 (.377)
• Dak Prescott: 19–38 (.333)
• Justin Herbert: 10–26 (.278)

The context is important. Herbert has played behind inconsistent offensive lines, dealt with frequent coaching changes, and hasn’t always had a reliable defense. Still, the comparison isn’t flattering. A player with MVP buzz needs better results to match the narrative.

You can see the full QB leaderboard here: Active NFL QB Records vs Winning Teams

2024 Season Snapshot

The 2024 season didn’t help Herbert’s case. He finished 1–4 against .500-or-better opponents, with a strong win over the Ravens being the lone highlight. The Chargers once again struggled to close out tight games, with familiar issues on both sides of the ball.

Statistically, Herbert remained productive. He finished among the top quarterbacks in passing yards and showed flashes of brilliance. But it didn’t translate to team success, and frustration among fans and analysts grew louder.

With organizational changes likely in the offseason, the 2025 campaign could be a pivotal year for both Herbert and the Chargers.

External References

• Justin Herbert Game Log – Pro Football Reference
• Chargers Team Stats – ESPN
• NFL QB Efficiency Charts – RBSDM

Final Thoughts

Justin Herbert has the tools. Nobody questions the talent. But a 10–26 record against winning teams tells a story the eye test can’t ignore.

If Herbert wants to lead the Chargers into deep playoff runs and shake the criticism that he’s a “fantasy football quarterback,” it starts with more wins against the league’s best. Whether that’s on him, the coaching staff, or the front office is up for debate. But with the AFC loaded with star quarterbacks, there’s no margin for being just okay.

He’s still young. He’s still growing. And the opportunity to flip the narrative is in front of him. It’s just a matter of whether he—and the team around him—can deliver when it matters most.